Washington’s warm and dry conditions set up concerning wildfire season

SEATTLE —

Washington state is entering the summer fire season under concerning conditions, with experts warning that a historically low snowpack could fuel an active and potentially dangerous wildfire year. 

University of Washington professor and forest and fire ecologist Brian Harvey said the April 1 snowpack survey, a key benchmark used to assess water reserves heading into summer, came in at the fifth percentile, meaning 95% of years on record had greater snowpack than this past winter. 

“One of the reasons why snowpack is important relative to rain is because that water is stored and then is released throughout the spring and early part of summer,” Harvey said. 

Unlike rainfall, which runs off quickly, snowpack acts as a slow-release reservoir that keeps soils and vegetation moist well into the dry season. With this year’s reserves already melting rapidly in the warm spring temperatures, percent of normal snowpack readings have dropped into the teens across much of the region, leaving landscapes increasingly vulnerable. 

Harvey said the connection between winter snowpack and the following fire season is one of the most consistent patterns in the long-term fire record. Looking at national data spanning the past four and a half decades, he noted that from the early 1980s through 2000, only one year saw more than 6 million acres burned across the U.S. Since 2000, 15 years have crossed that threshold. 

Seasonal fire outlook maps issued at the start of May show elevated fire potential developing in eastern Washington as early as June, with conditions spreading west of the Cascades in July and the entire Pacific Northwest reaching high fire potential by August. 

But Harvey cautioned against assuming the threat is weeks away. 

“To not get lulled into a sense of ‘it’s going to only be later in the summer,’ because these conditions can rapidly change with something like a heat wave that can dry things out really fast,” he said, pointing to the 2021 heat dome as an example of how quickly fire risk can escalate. 

He added that wind remains a critical and unpredictable variable, particularly on the west side of the Cascades, where late summer east winds can push already warm, dry air toward the coast and create extremely difficult firefighting conditions, as seen during the major fires of 2020. 

While some have raised concerns about a potential El Niño event intensifying conditions, Washington state Deputy State Climatologist Karin Bumbaco said its effects would likely be felt after this summer’s fire season has already played out. She noted that the region is currently in neutral conditions, which have no bearing on the current seasonal climate or fire outlook. 

Bumbaco said there is roughly a 50% chance the developing El Niño could be classified as strong or very strong by next fall or winter, and an equal chance it remains weak or moderate, with a clearer picture expected by July or August. She also pointed out that the term “Super El Niño” is not a non-scientific label, and clarified that a stronger event does not necessarily mean more severe storms, only a greater likelihood of the typical El Niño winter pattern for the region, which for Washington would mean warmer than normal winter temperatures and below normal snowpack heading into spring 2027. 

Bumbaco added that forecasters are fairly confident a La Niña will not develop next winter, with only about a one in 10 chance of neutral conditions returning instead of El Niño. 

Harvey emphasized that fire is a natural and expected part of Pacific Northwest ecosystems, but said the combination of early snowmelt, warming temperatures and drying fuels means communities and land managers need to be prepared earlier and more thoroughly than in a typical year.